Manifold Markets is a prediction market platform where users create and trade on forecasts about future events using play money. This service provides read-only access to market data, user information, and betting activity to help analyze collective intelligence and probabilistic predictions.
Core Capabilities
Market Intelligence: Search and explore prediction markets with filtering options. Retrieve detailed market information including current probabilities, trading volume, resolution criteria, and market metadata.
User Analysis: Look up user profiles by username to understand trader activity, market creation history, and participation patterns across the platform.
Betting Data: Access detailed betting information from specific markets or users. Filter bets by various criteria to analyze trading patterns, market dynamics, and user behavior over time.
Discovery: Search for users by username or display name to find specific traders or explore the community.
Domain Model
Markets represent forecasting questions with probability-based pricing. Users create markets, place bets, and earn points through accurate predictions. Bets reflect confidence levels in outcomes and drive price discovery through collective trading activity.
Key Insights
Markets use play money (Manifold dollars) but generate real predictive value through social incentives. Resolution mechanisms ensure markets close with definitive outcomes. The platform covers diverse topics from politics to technology to personal challenges.
